As successful of a weekend I had I still drove home at 3:45 Sunday morning thinking about opportunity lost. The weekend poker fiesta started Friday night with a $50 buy in tournament with about 30 people in it. Since the structure was a little fast, I slept my way through the first 6 levels and patiently played big cards as aggressively as possible. Long story short, I won the thing, with Mr. Positive coming in second. $500 in my pocket, say hello to a new tricked out exhaust system for the CRF 250! (My cherished dirt bike for those not indoctrinated in moto-language).
The next day was a day I had been looking forward to for months. The final tournament of the fall season of my local poker league, 200 large to buy in, over 50 people, 10 Gs in the middle. Visions of a new home theater system were dashed quite unceremoniously by two pairs of pocket 10s going down in flames, once to the class clown holding queens and the final coffin nail administered by the Mad Russian's set of 7s. I really have to adjust my approach to these semi-deep stack tournaments. I am not taking enough chances or putting my opponents to the test often enough on bluffs. Catching cards and playing solid, smart poker is a nice foundation to anyone's game but without adding a few levels to your play, you will never fully maximize a poker session's potential. It is here I will discuss two of those levels.
BLUFFINGMaybe this section should just be called "thinking outside the box" because I don't do it enough. In that big tournament saturday there was this one kid, probably about 27 years old who played alot of hands with the collar of his red fleece pulled over his face everytime he was in a hand. He appeared to be catching a lot of hands. But I'll never know because I never put the punk to the test with a reraise pre or post flop, never having a hand. But that ain't poker, that's overly patient wussy play that'll end up bouncing you out of a tournament with pocket 10s to an underset. Sometimes that one bluff, that one extra pot is the difference between getting the money and sitting on the couch wondering when the pizza is gonna get there. That one bluff is worth so much more than just that pot. It establishes your own confidence and instills an unwillingness in your opponents to play a pot with you. The sailing is so much smoother once you establish, in yourself and in others, that this dog came to play today. Well, this dog (thumbs pointed at me) was a cat that day and I had to wait for a cash game to scrape together the funds for that new amplifier, which leads us to point number 2....
VALUE BETTINGYou can read your opponents, choose your cards wisely, and exercise the right mix of patience and aggression but there is one component that can make the difference between winning and losing poker. Value betting, squeezing every last available chip out of every pot. I'm no poker expert so I will not sit here posturing that I can reel off an amazingly cogent, logical exposition on the finer points of value betting. But I can tell you a story, 2 stories actually. This occurred after I busted out of the big tournament. I took about 20 minutes to sit on the couch, mindlessly stare at some college basketball game on the tv (I HATE basketball), and let the steam cool off of me before heading to the $1-$2 cash table.
I worked $190 slowly up to about $350 when I was dealt pocket Aces on the button. Pocket aces on the button is the main reason a poker player leaves the house, you cannot find a better situation. By this point a $5 straddle was on for the whole game, I raised it to $17, at least 3 callers give or take, I don't quite remember. Flop A-Q-6 offsuit. It's checked around to me and.....I bet $40? That's not a misprint. Ona ragged board, in position, holding a SET OF ACES, I actually grabbed 8 red chips and threw them in the pot. The only counter I have to "that's the stupidest bet I've ever heard of" is that we were playing the 7 -duece (win any hand with 7-2, no matter when or how, and everyone at the table has to pay you $5). I was trying to represent the 7-2 and look like I was bluffing down the pot. Let's examine the folly of this play:
1.Assuming that someone would put me on a 7-2 steal assumes that I am unreadable. I'm not and I know it.
2. Even if someone suspects a 7-2 situation, wouldn't it be better to check and hope someone bets the turn in an effort to take the pot from me after I show weakness on the flop?
3. Suspecting someone's bluff and pulling the trigger on the them are two VERY different things. If I was successful in pulling off some amazing acting job and convincing someone that I was bluffing, they still would have had to fire about a $150 re-bluff at the pot in their effort to push me off and that's extremely difficult to commit to even if they are "convinced" I'm bluffing. Most of us think that at least half of every pot won is by a bluffer, yet we don't go apeshit trying to stop it.
4. What can they call me with? I can only think of 4 hands that could stay in with me. Set of 6s, A-Q, K-J, and 10-J. I've obviously got the first two crushed and if someone tiptoes into a gutshot straight, that is the chance I've got to take.
I don't know if I left money out there or not, who knows maybe all three of them had 7-8 suited, but I HAVE TO check and let someone catch something or at least stab at it on the turn.
Estimated opportunity lost: $40-$100.The next missed opportunity came quite late in the game, probably around 2:30 am. By that time Jason had joined the table. In a group of some very respectable players, he is as good as anybody. He really plays a disciplined game. When I say disciplined I mean the multi layered type of discipline that elevates your game to the next level. I'm not referring to the discipline it requires to throw away K-J in middle position and avoid chasing expensive draws. I'm talking about the discipline it takes to fire at a pot with nothing, re-raise bluff out of position, or move in on a big draw knowing that while it could spell doom, it is statistically the best play the maximize your chips. Alot of players know you need to continuation bet with nothing, raise someone when you think they're out of line, and generally make someone pay the maximum when they appear weak. Jason has the DISCIPLINE, and the balls, to do it every time.
I got involved in a hand with Jason, and it played out like this: Not 5 minutes after I was discussing the merits of folding J-10 suited, out of position, to a healthy raise, I was dealt J-10 suited but this time in position and called Jason's $30 raise. I think we had one other caller. The flop came 9-Q-A. That's the flop I want in position. I'm opened ended and it's got an Ace, meaning if I hit my draw, I will likely get paid big time (if I play it right!!!). He bets $50. With about $100 in the pot, we don't have to go into any deep analysis to say the implied odds were more than there. I call, other guy folds. The turn is another 9. Not a good card. Jason checks. This is where I should have really given some thought to what he might be holding instead of just thanking the poker gods for a free draw to a straight. Of course there's no way in hell I'm going to bet BUT I've really got to know what to do IF I hit the straight on the river. It's here I squandered an opportunity to really throw some complexity into this pot.
Instead of insta-checking like I did, I should have run the progression of hands he might have before rapping my knuckle on the table. It would serve me well to appear as though I've got
some kind of hand that requires some time to think but that the 9 slowed me down a little. If he's got a monster of course he's going to check the turn. It achieve two things: one, he looks a little weak, and two, it gives me a chance to catch something and pay him off. I need to think this through, what could he have to raise out of early position in a pretty loose cash game (remember it's 2:30 in the morning)? A-A? maybe. Q-Q? just as maybe. 9-9? even less maybe but possible. A-K or A-Q? Sure, who knows? BUT the point is that it's not here, right now, that I'm going to know what he holds. It doesn't matter what he holds, what matters is I prepare myself for the correct play depending what hits the river. Let's assign him a range of hands and corresponding course of action for each one on the river. Monster: He's got to bet the river, ESPECIALLY if a straight card hits. Big Ace: He'll check again. The 9 spooked him and my check back gave him no information. Weak pair. He'll certainly check again and that's when I must employ a little judgment and decide whether or not to bluff the river. None of that matters, a King hits the river and I've caught what I'm looking for.
I realize now, as opposed to then, that what Jason does when the river card hits is so crucial to extracting maximum value out of this pot. Put yourself in his shoes. If he's got a monster, he's going to love that river and bet hoping I will call, or better yet, play back at him with the straight. That's all I need to know. He WILL NOT check both turn and river with a winning hand. Let's think again, what would he open-raise with? Mathematically, A-K or A-Q is most likely. If he's got A-K, then my call on the flop may have frozen him, thinking that it's ME who's got A-Q. If that's the case though, he loves that King. But Jason is smart enough to also know that King hits an open ender. HE checks. Knowing what I know now, I HAVE TO BET. He is NOT going to take the chance of losing me on the river with a big hand. More importantly, if I would have thought it through, I would have logically put him on AK or AQ and made a value bet of $80 or so. He is not immortal, and would call with his two pair just like the rest of us. I showed the irrational fear of being set up by his boat full of guns on the river and checked, stupidly saying "well, I see no value in betting here." Even though he had "only" $250 in front of him, I didn't have the guts, no actually the brains, to extract about a third of that on the river. I hope I've made it abundantly clear that by thinking it through, I would have easily seen that he did not have a straight beat. I checked, he turned over A-K. I was admonished by Daryl for not value betting the river and now, Yes Mr. Norman I see the light.
Jason and I both made a mistake on that hand. No doubt he was kicking himself for letting me catch that King, he should have moved at least $1oo on the turn. And I'm kicking myself for not keeping the poker gods and their allotments of luck in line with the stars by betting for value a straight that I paid
just a tad too much to draw to. And in some backwards way, I think Jason would have taken the beat a bit easier had I played it right and got some value out of it.
Estimated Opportunity Lost: $80 - $100.
Some nights your just not gonna catch that many hands, or you just might be up against a tough table that gives nothing away. And it's those nights that will really remind you that you've got to
extract maximum value out of every hand to really be a winning player.
Think every hand through, take your time, and make the right move every time it's possible. Sure, some mistakes will be made along the way but like everything in life, that's the only way you get better.
