This Week's NFL Picks

Previously I have only listed the results of my NFL bets. Whenever possible I will now preview them before the games and then on Monday will see how much of a genius, or idiot, I am.

• Green Bay (+7) at Dallas 0/u 52

I'm betting on Green Bay because I want them to win AND I think Farv-ra and company can keep it within 7. I might even bet the Cheese on the money line (currently +275). I'll update if I o. I think the under will hit but I love scoring and am sick of betting on totals. Not touching it.

Update: Lied. Picked GB & the over. Got half right. Wagered: $20, Lose $20

UPDATE #2: Props to my Peeps. I recovered all that $20 and then some with 3 player prop bets that ALL worked:

1. Brett Farvra - Under 320.5 yards passing. He got hurt, call it a gimme. Win $10

2. Ryan Grant - Over 75.5 yards rushing. Basically got it in one 1st quarter TD. Win $6

3. Terrell Owens - Over 6.5 receptions. He got 7, Perfect. Win $10

• Buffalo (+5.5) at Washington o/u 37

Ugh. Who knows what the 'Skins will look like after Taylor's death. I'm not touching this one. I'll update if I do.

• Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings o/u 45

Detroit on a 3 game slide and Minnesota clobbering the Giants has made the odds makers very kind to the Vikes. Detroit is one of those Jekyll & Hyde teams that'll drive ya nuts on a Sunday afternoon. I don't care who wins but Adrian Peterson should be in the line up and Kitna will fare much better than Happy Feet Jr. The scoreboard should light up. Taking the over but I reserve the right to rescind if Peterson doesn't play.

Update: I wussed out and didn't bet.

• Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis o/u 45

Another intraconference touchdown road dog. All eyes will be on this one. One thing ours eys won't be on is the Jag's mascot, perhaps the funniest looking in pro sports. Has anyone ever taken a close look at this guy? He look's like Big Bird's acid tripping hippy cousin, who only leaves the East Village to visit Sesame Street on Beatnik Poetry Night. Take a look the next time they're on, you'll see. Anyhow, the Jacksonville juggernaut rolls into town to face the formerly reeling but now healing Colts. I like the Jags to cover and the under, but will probably just bet the spread. I'll update if anything changes.

Update: I bet Jags moneyline (wanted odds, what can I say). Wagered $10, Lost $10

• San Diego (-6) at Kansas City

True story: Friday afternoon I was sitting here typing away and listening to Howard Stern on Sirius. Some guy calls in just going off on how much of a lock this bet was, you should bet 8 times your normal amount, etc, etc. You know what? I agreed with him, only doubled up though. San Diego 24 - Kansas City 10. Wagered $22, Won $20

• Houston Texans (-4) at Tennessee Titans o/u 42

The new Oilers fly to music city to play the old Oilers. Just before game time it was announced that Albert Haynesworth was playing. Haynesworth IS the Tennesse defense. I put it on the under. It didn't work. Vince Young forgot he sucks and actually played well as the Titans scored one touchdown too many. Titans 28 - Texans 20. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Cleveland (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Cleveland? I bet on Cleveland? How the hell does any self-respecting Die Hard Pittsburgh Steelers fanatic ever bet on Cleveland? Once. That's how, NEVER AGAIN. Wagered $16, LOST (JUST AS I DAMNED WELL DESERVED) $16

• Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans o/u 41

All I know about the New Orleans Saints is that they score alot of points and they give up alot of points. I don't think they have a whole lot of maturity or enough talent to go around though so I have no clue who's gonna win but I'm pretty sure we'll see more than 41 points.

Update: I hit the over as expected but right before the game my girlfriend wanted some action....so I bet her the moneyline on New Orleans. New Orleans loses AGAIN. 23-27. Result: Win one, lose one. Wagered: $20, Pushed.

• Cinncinati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers 0/u 38

Betting on the Steelers is heart wrenching for me so I don't do it very much, plus I really thought after the last couple games that the Bungles had a very real chance to cover. But betting on the Flush 'em down Browns was bad enough, so following through on that thought would earn me an expressway to hell, where you are forced to watch endless loops of a Miami Dolphins - San Francisco 49ers game. So I do what I always do: Bet the over and hope for a pile of points because I have, gasp, Carson Palmer in a fantasy league anyway. The Bengals are who we thought they were! though and they can't score. Steel Curtain 24 - Bungles 10. Wagered: $16.50, Lost $16.50

Week's Results: -$27.50. Uh oh, guess that next bottle of Ketel One is coming out of my own pocket but there is big time help on the way, as you can see here.

Sean Taylor Passed Away

UPDATE: http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8049be12&template=without-video&confirm=true

Man, what an incredible bummer. Very suspicious circumstances too. This certainly does not seem like a random robbery, someone knew what they were doing.

Condolences and best wishes for the family and the team, and hopefully whoever did this will be brought to justice.

Nobody Likes A Tease

I love the multi billion dollar cottage industry dedicated to betting hard earned money on something so ridiculous as the outcome of a football game, usually in relation to achieving a minimum score differential among the two teams. What I love even more is the creativity with which these shylocks and grease men will allow you to put your weekly wages at risk. That is until now. So far this season I have mainly stuck to picking a winner against the spread, over/unders, and the occasional parlay for the big payoff. Well, this week for some odd reason I went teaser crazy. Perhaps I felt the need to liquidate Saturday night's profit of $100 in $.10/$.25 pot limit omaha (seriously).

Here's a recap:

• Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

Green Bay is just on a roll. Wagered: $11, Won $10

• New York Jets (+15) at Dallas

Don't Ask. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Over 47

Cincinnati scores alot. It's that simple. Tennessee superstar lineman and former face-kicker Albert Haynesworth was still out. While Cincy's offense held up their end of the bargain, the defense chose this week to forget that they blow. Apparently the medicine for a shitty defense is to play against Vince Young. Young is entertaining as he prances around the field, ball held high and out for any closing defender to knock into the air with a mere swat of the fingertips, running for the occassional 6 yard gain whilst treating his receivers to a game of "you run this way, you run that way" down the street style of football. 12 points Vince, all we needed out of you was 12 points. We got 6. Bungles 35 - Ms. Pac Man 6. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11

• Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs Over 38

I couldn't pick a winner here, I think it was Redskins (-3). But I did think it would be about a 23-20 type game. And it would have been. Except Jason Campbell developed a severe phobia of the red zone in the 4th quarter, tossing two picks inside the 20 on their last two drives. Bucs 19 - 'Skins 13. Missed it by 6. 6, Mr. Campbell, is the point value of a touchdown that you will be awarded should you decide ever again to throw to one of your guys in the end zone. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11

• Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams Over 45.5

Bulger was back, Jackson's healthy and Seattle still gives up enough points, while scoring their fair share, to make this one look like a no-brainer. And at the end of the 1st quarter things were lookin' great at 16-7, for a total of 23. Then something odd happened. They both decided to play defense. What!!!!!? 3 more quarters for a total of 20 more points and I miss it by a field goal. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11. Ouch, let's see what's going on over at that Saints game....

• New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers

This has become the no-brainer du jour. Until further notice, bet against Carolina regardless of the spread. The oddsmakers still haven't adjusted the spread for just how far apart the Panthers have fallen. New Orleans would have been a bargain at (-10). Because of the eternally anemic Panthers offense, the over (somewhere around 38 or so) scared the hell out of me, and rightfully so. Steve Smith deserves better. Bagheads 31 - John Kasay 6. Wagered: $11, Won $10

Alright, here's where things get weird. When I look at a line and just don't get any noticeable gut feeling, I usually just leave the game alone. There are some games that are just too random to get a feel on. These games usually involve shitty, jekyll & hyde type teams. In the name of brevity, here's what happened:

• Buffalo Bills teased from (+9) to (+15) vs. Jacksonville AND The over (teased from 37 down to 31). Jacksonville clobbered 'em, 36-14 en route to obliterating the original over by 13.
• Oakland Raiders vs. KC teased from (+5.5) to (+11.5) vs. Kansas City AND Houston vs. Cleveland teased from (+3.5) to (+9.5). Houston Lost by 10 via a mop up TD with 3 minutes to go. It was never close.

Let's just say this: Involving Buffalo, Oakland, and Kansas City in any kind of betting other than "they'll get the snot kicked out them" is bad business. Don't mess with bad and inconsistent teams. Wagered: $22, Lost $22

• Denver at Chicago Over 41 Wagered: $11, Won $10

Everything went as planned on this one, the Chicago defense just isn't what they were last year. But I got greedy. Because of the debacle of losing almost every 1 o'clock bet, I snuck in a "make up" bet on Denver (+1) right before the game. After kicking to Devin Hester TWICE, ON PURPOSE and watching him run for two TDs, Denver seemed to have righted their ship and pulled into a 34-20 lead with 10 minutes to go. Then Mike Shanahan committed the cardinal sin: Prevent Defense. As many have said, the prevent defense only prevents you from winning. All you gotta do is pressure Rex Grossman and he will give you the ball by either throwing a pick or fumbling in the backfield. Denver made him look like Joe Montana en route to picking apart them apart for two scores in about 5 minutes. Then they lost in overtime. Let's recap: Kicking to Devin Hester + Prevent Defense, coupled with the Shanahanigans of calling a timeout 3 milliseconds before every field goal snap: Bring me the head of Mike Shanahan. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-23)

All season it's been until further notice, bet on the Patriots. This is further notice. Pats 31 - Eagles 28. Wagered $11, Lost $11

• Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41

I made this bet on Thursday (after completely lucking into a parlay of Colts (-13)/over 41.5 at Atlanta. 31 -13 Indy. Wagered $15, Won $39). This was before the rain soaked/cow pasture debacle at Heinz field. At least I had the sense to make a second half Under 16.5 bet to push. Lost $1 on the juice

Overall Results for the week: -$20

Cash Game Results

Had a nice little cash game the other night. Thanksgiving was on the line and there was no weekly tournament so 12 people showed up for a night of no rake $1-$2 action. Splitting the gang into two 6 person tables was kind of a bummer but there was plenty of action to be had, perhaps highlighted by Sundeep's not so triumphant return from Singapore. After lamenting his missed opportunity on some prematurely dumped Google put options I swear the poor guy re-loaded twice before the button even got to him. He's an action player, more focused on downing some beers and yuckin' it up with the guys than he is on poker results. Plus, 4 or 5 hundred is nothing to a guy who spends his time lording over the international financial markets.

Although the night had no real dramatic moments for me, I did have a pair of Kings run into Ludey's Aces. For those of you who have read I wanna be a Cowboy you'll notice this is the second time in 3 games I've been knocked off my high horse by Ludeman's Bullets. As John Wayne used to say, "This is getting re-goddamn-diculous". This one I couldn't do anything about. There were 1 or 2 limpers, Alex raised to $15. Alex is what you would call loose, and as I had no positive action for the two hours we'd been playing, I was happy taking the $25 in the pot or hoping he'd call with anything but Aces. I pushed in my last $102. If Alex hadn't raised the hand would have played out differently but since he had, I had no choice but to shove. Alex probably held two napkins but Ludey insta-called...."AGAIN!?" I said, as he flipped over and actually apologized for holding aces. "That's poker" I said as I ran upstairs for the last $240 I had in the house.

After that I was down over $200 but ended up exactly 100 semolians at the end of the night. Not bad, considering. One day Ludey, one day..........

Results from this week's NFL Betting

I swear NFL Sunday Ticket was invented as a conspiracy by all the online sportbooks. There's ten games on at the same time but a majority of them involve mediocre teams that no one gives a shit about. In order for you to fully enjoy the experience, and feel that you got your money's worth, you have to fabricate a way to enjoy watching all these games. What better way to inject some self inflicted interest than to bet on them all! Well, most of them. Here's a recap of yesterday's action:

• San Diego (+3) at Jacksonsville 0/u 40.5

Who the hell knows what you're going to get any given week with San Diego? And Jacksonville's pretty solid but can they stop LT and will Rivers actually have a good day.? Like I said, who the hell knows. But I do know this: The Bolts cannot stop the run, David Garrard is back and the Jags offense is clicking. But their defense isn't quite as stout as years past and with all their weapons, SD should put up a respectable number of points. Sounds like a good time to pick the over! Final: 24-17 Jags. Squeaked one out by half a point. Wagered $11.50, WIN $10

• New Orleans (+1.5) at Houston o/u 50

New Orleans. The model of inconsistency. Potent offense, pourous defense and facing the Texans who have Andre Johnson AND Matt Schaub returning to the line up. I don't care who wins but I do have Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, and Kevin Walter in various fantasy leagues and I would love to see a sandlot shootout. Again, what better reason than to pick the over! As the game was starting my roommate (a fantasy football maven of the highest order) remarked on how well Houston plays D at home. Nonsense! I said, and it looked okay as the game entered halftime 17-10. A whopping 6 more points were scored in the second half. Looks like that next 12 pack of Miller Lite is gonna have to come out of my own pocket. Wagered $11.50, Lost $11.50

• Green Bay (-10) at Carolina o/u 37.5

I live in Charlotte so I have first hand knowledge of this little fact: The Panthers suck (su-su-su-su, that's right Judge Smails, they suck!). Of their defensive stars, Dan Morgan can't walk out of his house without suffering a season ending injury and Julius Peppers doesn't sack anyone anymore. Somebody told me a viscious rumor that it's because he can't get HGH from some guy in Spartanburg anymore but I don't know anything about that. One more reason the shirt and tie crowd at Bank of America Stadium will be in their cars by halftime: Steve Smith has a leg injury and is doubtful. Packers by 10, no-brainer. I took a look at the game about half way through the 4th and for some reason Drew Carter decided to catch pass and run for 50 yards. The Panthers score two plays later and all the sudden a 28-3 game at half was 28-16. Coach John Fox of the Panthers inexplicably doesn't go for 2 with 4 minutes to go, thereby preserving my 1 point cushion over the spread. Thanks coach. Wagered $11.50, WIN $10

• Cleveland (-2) At Baltimore o/u 43.5

I don't care who wins this game, they're both in my beloved Steelers' division so I'm just happy somebody has to lose. All season, I've had a hard fast rule of picking the under in any Baltimore game until further notice. They play such an excruciatingly boring brand of football. Their anemic offense and aging, yet still solid defense almost always ensures a snooze fest of 2 yard runs, passes for no gains, false start penalties, punts, and the occasional field goal. Almost Always. Yesterday these two sloppy bastards decided to score. If Derek Anderson would have decided to have thrown only to the guys in the offensively ugly white, brown, and orange uniforms than everything would have been just fine. Instead he zips a pick sixer to Ray Lewis, and then Boller throws his own 100 yard nail in my coffin to some DB in an offensively ugly white, brown, and orange uniform. Should have known. The Browns can't stop ANYONE. Wagered $11.50, Lost $11.50

• St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco o/u 39.5

This might be the "Who cares game of the week" but it is also the "Can't miss, 100% surefire, back the truck up, lock of the week". After having to endure SF last monday night, it is obvious that those 6 kids I saw playing in my neighbors yard yesterday could beat them. Coupled with the fact the Bulger is healthy, Steven Jackson is back, and Tory Holt still possesses hands, I'm going double on this one. It wasn't pretty, but they covered by the minimum, 13-9. Wagered $22, WIN $20

• Washington (+11) at Dallas o/u 47

Jason Campbell has struggled at times this year but I believe he has the skills, and more importantly the poise to become a legitimate NFL QB. The running game is coming together and he's starting to hit wide receivers in the end zone. The Cowboys are the Cowboys, they're going to score, no doubt about it. But one simple fact remains: Roy Williams plays for them. And they are going to get scored on. Other than Jason David, Roy Williams has got to be the most consistently shitty Safety in the league. Slow, poor tackler, physically soft, this guy has been burned more times than Ricky William's 6 foot bong. I figured the skins would give them a game and keep it within 7 or so. Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day! 'Boys 28, Skins 23. Wagered $11, WIN $10

• Chicago (+6) at Seattle o/u 37.5

Over/under at 37.5! Did I read that right? Yes Larry, you did. Apparently the odds makers haven't seen the Bears defense since mid season last year. Double up on this one too! Seabags 30, Bears 23. Wagered $22.00, WIN $20

So I have a pretty good day, going 2 for 4 in the early games and hitting all 3 (including two doubles) in the late games. I'm up $50 so I figure I'll throw a little parlay on the Pats/Bills game. Pats (-16) and the over (46.5), no-brainer right? Wrong. wrong. I call Bondtrader Joe, poker buddy and fellow lowstakes gambling junkie. We conclude that "the Bills always play them tough" and I pick, and it pains me to even type this, the Pats (-16) and the under? What the hell is wrong with me? The Patriots are not an NFL football team. They are a superhuman gathering of highly talented football players executing their given tasks with a precision, attitude, and a hunger previously not seen in the history of this league. And until further notice, they will destroy all in its path, cover the spread, and obliterate the over in every game. Except against the Steelers. I will simply have to refrain from wagering that particular game. Wagered $12, LOST $12

Final outcome: + $35

MNF: Tennessee (+1) At Denver o/u 38.5. Huh? Shit, I have no clue. I'll probably tease up Tennesse to +7 and pick under 44.5.

UPDATE: I took Tennessee (+1). They got slaughtered. Wagered $11, Lost $11

Final week's tally: + $24