Sunday, December 30, 2007
Today's List
Saturday, December 29, 2007
THE WORST 3 (OKAY 4) DAYS OF MY LIFE
I had long winded detailed explanations of pot odds and situational strategies that I was going to bluster on and on about. I had all sorts of ways to justify and learn from the myriad plays that I put into action only to end up with empty felt. I was gonna tell you all about it. But the fact is you don’t want hear it anymore than I want to tell it. Plus it was over a week ago and frankly, I really don’t remember much of it. But there is a lesson. The lesson here is….wait a minute, there is no lesson. Either an amazing 4 month run of luck came to a horribly violent end (some people I play would probably say that) or…I lost patience. A little bit of both combined with a bad run makes a recipe for bankroll depletion. And questions. What was it? What did I do to fall so swiftly from my precarious perch? Was it the misplaced hubris of dumping almost a grand of poker winnings into my beloved dirt bike (I can show you pictures, the thing is beautiful)?..Was it the overdue Time Warner cable bill (screw them; those DVRs DO NOT cost $400!)? Did I gun down Doyle Brunson’s grandfather in some spectacular past life Wild West shootout? It doesn’t matter. When you fall off the bike, you gotta get right back on the horse and keep trying.
And try I did. The Steelers beat the Rams, I hit the over for 20 bucks (details of the last few weeks of NFL betting soon to come, I’m sure I lost), and I played a patient solid game and started to put in place the rebuilding blocks of my decimated bankroll.
It was going okay. For one night. And then it all went to the dogs.
Going to the Dogs
It’s been said that everything in Florida is in the 80s. The ages, the temperatures, and the IQs. This was no more evident than at the Naples – Fort Myers Dog Track. That’s right the friggin’ dog track. The one in Naples has a poker room. They have dealers, cards, felt, and shoddily dressed waitresses hocking cocktails, just like any other poker room. But this one has some screwy idiosyncrasies. In true legislatorial backward ass thinking, the Florida doofusses actually found a way to make luck an even BIGGER factor in a poker game. They have no limit poker but they enacted a law limiting the amount one can buy in for at any poker table to a maximum of $100 at a time, no matter what the limits and blinds. 1-2, 2-5, 5-10...doesn’t matter sir, you cannot start with more than $100. And these goobers just eat it up. At a 5-10 no limit game, you still can’t start with more than 100 bucks. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that, yeah, everyone’s all in before the turn. I didn’t bother, 1-2 sounded just fine.
I threw down my Benjamin, set down my mighty stack of twenty red chips and scanned the landscape to see just what kind of maneuvering this expedition would take. Most poker tables run the gamut of characters and this one was no different. It was littered with your usual assortment of ne’er do wells, bottom feeders, and one or two guys that actually had a clue. I even spotted the elusive Rascal-Oxygen tank combo. The most noticeable of the fish was some Midwestern alpha male who actually grunted and pumped his fists whenever his 3 outers hit (what’s a 3 outer?). Have you’ve ever seen the “World’s Strongest Man” competition on ESPN 9? In this contest, each meathead goes through a routine designed to psyche himself up before he throws a VW Bug through an oversized basketball hoop. They grunt, groan, turn red, flex their guns, and generally work themselves into a frenzy. That was this guy’s post victory celebration every time he hit some bullshit suckout. I nicknamed him “Mitchell Report”. Then there was “Authority Artie”. He was more concerned with informing everyone of the correct pot odds than he was with ever making any money (I offered his only profit that I can remember when my queens ran into his aces, costing me a cool $92). Then there was Family guy, a friendly clueless chap who unloaded at least $400 in the 4 hours I was there, and a veritable smattering of lifeless Floridians, either one step way from the grave or one bad decision from starring in their very own episode of “cops”. Drinks were bad, water was 2 bucks, bathroom smelled, and the floor was dirty.
Onto the game. There was one guy 2 to my left who was really stacking it up. It seemed like he’d catch a straight on the river every 5 hands and these chumps were far too clueless not to pay him off EVERY time. In between constant fiddlings with his cell phone, he had run his stack up to over $500. I felt that was an injustice to the balance of the universe and was of the opinion that a good portion of those chips should be in front of me. But before I knew it, it was getting near the zero hour. I had about 5 minutes before I had to leave to meet the family for dinner. I had $176 in front of me on the button when Authority Artie raised it to $17. He was transparent and it was obvious he had big cards. I told myself I would call him with anything that had a remote possibility of dismantling a big hand.
I looked down at 6-7 of clubs, more than enough to make that call. The small blind (Clueless Family Guy) called and so did Mr. Straight Catcher. There is $68 in the pot. The flop was 2c-3c-4d. Family Guy bets $20, Straight Catcher set his phone down long enough to call and Artie folds. There is now $108 in the pot and I have $159 left. I didn’t like my chances here but I knew if it hit I would win a big pot. Family Guy had just re-bought and there was no doubt he would put in his remaining $85 and the way Straight Catcher reacted to the initial bet, I knew he would call all my chips as well, he might as well just text messaged me as such. A quick study of numbers revealed that if I moved in, the total pot would be $491 (108+159+85+139). I’m getting 3 to 1. Is my hand better than a 3 to 1 dog? I figure one of them caught a piece of the flop and one is on a draw. I throw out my flush draw as a possibility, which leaves me a nonclub 5 for a straight and a 6 or 7 for an overpair. 9 outs with 2 cards to come, I’ll win about 28% of the time. 72 to 28 is just slightly better than 3 to 1 and I'm done swimming with the fishes, let’s go. They both call.
Family Guy has A-8 of clubs and luck box straight catcher has…A-4 of hearts. I am now seething at Mr. Luck Box Straight Catcher, that dude has been dodging bullets all day. No one has had a hand against him. You give me enough time and I’ll be shoving sets and over pairs right up your dumb ass all day long, I think to myself as the turn and the river blank off. All my hopes and dreams are left stalled in the sippy hole. Instead of 500 bucks and buying the family some burritos, it's chips n’ salsa, water – no ice.
Although Straight Catcher had some skills, you get tired of seeing an oblivious card rack rake in pot after pot. Pair of 4s for 160 bucks? Raiser and 3 callers and somehow numbnuts gets so ass lucky that no one has a pocket pair or catches anything. ANY pocket pair beats him. Think of the flop, every pocket pair available in the game of poker crushes him to stone. BUT NOOOO! draws galore and cell phone phan (not to be confused with David “The Dragon” Phan) dodges ‘em all and has over $800. I couldn’t bring myself to even look at the stack, I shook Artie’s hand, bid family guy farewell and jetted out of there.
Had I had the time, I would have located that hallowed sippy hole and baptized myself of all my sins in the muddy dirge. But I had correct odds, it was Mexican night and the waiter sounded EXACTLY like Fez from that 70s show. Margaritas all around.
The lesson here: Keep pushin’, it’ll hit.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Part of the 45%
I played a one table satellite Wednesday night. The winner received a free trip to Atlantic City and the buy-in to the $1,000 No Limit event at the Borgata WPT tournament in January. I wanted it. Bad. I played well, and got lucky. Good. The table consisted of a pretty tough field. Here’s the list and what I know about them:
Jerry – Solid, I have no idea what he’s doing but he drinks while he does it and I like that.
Jay – Mellow, I have no idea what he’s doing
Kramer – Hyper Aggressive, just like his dog. I usually have no idea what he’s doing
Positive – I know every single thing about him, and he vice versa about me
Daryl – Solid, I have no idea what he’s doing. I do know he likes heavy metal
Ludey – Solid, he always has Aces when I have Kings
Jason – Solid, I have no idea what he’s doing
Buff – Action player, gambler, and all around good guy. I have no idea what he’s doing.
Ok, I exaggerate. I know a little bit about most of these guys, they are all solid players and playing with them the last year and a half has made me a much better player. I was looking forward to the challenge, I needed to be focused. The Ketel One would have to wait until after the game. Chips started at 8,000 and by the time a few players got knocked out I was up to about 15,000 and things started to snowball. After folding the big blind I ran to take care of nature’s call. The previous hand must have went quick because as I was returning people at the table were yelling my name and were about to muck my hand. I got back just in time to look under the gun at a pair of Kings. Lucky, yeah, and it was just starting. With visions of riding the range and punchin’ them dogies, I raised about 3 times the blind. It folded around to Kramer in the Big who went all in with Queens. No queen, no gnarly suck-out, see ya. I like Kramer but his removal meant a reprieve from his killer boxer puppy who had been viciously on the attack, licking everyone and everything in sight.
The dominoes started to fall. Mr. Positive moved the last of his stack on J-9 and my A-10 held up. A few hands later Jerry checked A-K in the Big. He would regret it, but I wouldn't have folded anyway at anytime in the hand. I was running good and I had chips. I flopped Aces and Fives and although my check on the flop allowed Jay to stay around to turn a straight, I got the lion’s share of Jerry’s chips and he was out. Ludey then made an ill-timed bluff against Sherriff Daryl who stuck his casted encrusted boot up his ass and sent him packing. Don’t bluff the Sheriff. In the words of One Arm Steve “He may not be a toker but he always knows what’s goin’ on”. On the last hand before the break Jason moved his last 4800 in the middle. I held 7-7 but I also held 28k in chips and it was time to get out of the kiddie pool. Jason had 9-9 but you know how sometimes you just feel it? 7 in the window and I’m feeling good. TALK ABOUT LUCK – as I type this I just watched Lidell Betts score the first touchdown of the Sunday night game. I bet 12 to 1 that would be the case. Props to my peeps!!!
Back to the action. Putting the bad beat on Jason meant one less tough player at a tough table, we’re down to 3 and I have over half the chips. Then deck then hit me in the face. What appeared to be a classic display of power poker was actually me just raising one good hand after another. Kings, Big Slick, Jacks, it was relentless. My stack was building and after suffering a couple losses, The Sherriff moved in his last 2800 on the button. I’m in the Big for 1000 already, I don’t even need to look. Of course my 9-3 offsuit took it down.
Jay and I were now heads up and I held a 2 to 1 chip lead. After almost an hour of heads up play I was really regretting checking the flop that let him catch the straight way back when. The man is patient. We tossed chips back and forth until we were right back were we started. With blinds at 1000-2000, he moved all in about 20k and I looked down at A-7. I’d seen him move with less and it was time. He flipped over 4-4. . The flop is 5-8-8, turn is a Jack. I need a 5, Jack, Ace, or 7 – 12 outs. The river is a Jack. Going to the flop we were in a 55% - 45% situation. That’s part of the 45%. I’m going to AC. I hope to have something good to write about in 5 weeks, I’ll let ya know.
COMING NEXT - The 3 worst poker days of my life.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Lesson From A Legend
Doyle raised in late position to about $4,000 (blinds are 300-600 with a mandatory 1200 straddle). Doyle held Q-9 of Diamonds. Patrik Antonius, cash game beast extraordinaire, called in one of the blinds. Within the previous 10 minutes Antonius had lost about $280,000 in a failed bluff attempt against Sammy Farha. While relatively composed, those with a keen eye could still see the steam pouring out of the top of Patrik’s head. Doyle's eye is still keen.
Doyle flopped a flush draw with a gutshot to go with it, I think it was Kd-Jd-8c, not sure exactly but you get the point – flush draw, gutshot. Pot had about $10k in it, Antonius led out with $7,000. Doyle casually raised to $22,000 and Antonius called without a second thought. There is now $55k in the pot. The turn was a blank, Antonius checked and Doyle checked right behind him. The river paired 8s on the board, no diamonds. Antonius again checked and Doyle resignedly said “Queen high”.
You’ve noticed by now I haven’t mentioned what cards Patrik Antonius held. That’s because it has never been more irrelevant to a poker hand than it was in this situation. Doyle knew that and that’s why he played it this way. Many of us keep their foot on the gas in Doyle’s situation throughout the hand. I’ve done it, stubbornly bluffed on every street, only to have my opponent call me all the way down with mediocre holdings. Doyle recognized the situation though. He just watched Patrik blow off almost $300 large in failed bluff attempt and knew he was in no mood to be folding at any time in this hand.
In a brilliant juxtaposition to conventional wisdom, knowing Patrik wouldn’t fold is exactly the reason Doyle raised on the flop. Doyle had a nice draw and correctly built himself a pot worth playing for, knowing that if he hit Mr. Antonius would be paying him off handsomely. But he also had the years of wisdom and self control to not try to macho his way through this pot by betting crap and hoping his opponent would finally fold. He might have done that in a different situation against Antonius but he knew this time it would be futile.
It was not a big hand but watching such a masterfully aggressive player play a pot in such a masterfully passive way reminded me that this game is one of many simple lessons. I can’t tell you how many strings of $20, $30, or $75 trying I've wasted to muscle someone out of a pot. If I can just refrain once because of Doyle’s reminder, that’s one case of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale I won’t have to buy out of my own pocket. I’ll take that. Oh, by the way, Patrik had Q-J for a pair of Jacks.
Keep in mind your opponent’s state of mind, not just his “image”, in every hand you play.
Friday, December 7, 2007
This week's NFL Picks - Results
- Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Jacksonville Jags o/u 38
The Panthers resembled a real NFL team in their 1st home victory since the Nixon administration last week against the 49ers. But Jacksonville ain't the 49ers. They will run the ball all over the Panthers and confuse the hell out of whoever is playing QB. Can the Panthers keep it close? I doubt it. Take the under and hope both teams run alot. UPDATE: IS this the Carolina Panthers or the University of North Carolina Tarheels? I don't know, the uniforms look alot alike....I'm sure the Dolphins are bummin' that they don't have Carolina on the schedule this year. Wagered: $2 (seriously), Lost $2
- Dallas Cowboys (-11) at Detroit Lions o/u 51
The way things are going, John Kitna's prediction of 10 may come true. 10 losses! I think Dallas will kill 'em and hopefully Crayton will rack up some points for my fantasy team. UPDATE: One week to the next, you just don't know what you're going get with some teams. Wagered $2, Lost $2
- Miami Dolphins (+7) at Buffalo Bills 0/u 35
Who cares. UPDATE: Anybody care yet?
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) at New England Patriots o/u 48
I bleed black and gold. And like everyone else south of Providence I want the Patriots to lose. Polamalu aggravated his sore knee in practice wednesday and he's out. I don't care. Steelers MONEY LINE (+375). Put me down for 20!.........UPDATE: I'm still bleeding and it still hurts. Alot. Wagered: $20, Lost $20
- Minnesota Vikings (-9) at San Francisco 49ers o/u 39
The Vikes are surging right now and I expected the steamroller to be in high gear in the bay area this weekend. Don't know if the Niners can contribute any scoring so I'll refrain from the over. UPDATE: This was one of those that comes along every month or so that you know just can't miss. I upped my bet far beyond my normal $10 range. Wagered: $33, WON $30
- San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans 0/u 40
Haynesworth is back. He's a beast. Titans in a close one. UPDATE: Changed my mind and bet on the Chargers. Wagered $2, WON $1.82
- Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
UPDATE: I did a teaser. God I'm an idiot. Wagered $10, LOST $10
RESULTS: Lost $2.18. Hardly worth writing about, huh?
Annie Duke's Testimony to Congress
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Chip Reese Passed Away
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Value City
The next day was a day I had been looking forward to for months. The final tournament of the fall season of my local poker league, 200 large to buy in, over 50 people, 10 Gs in the middle. Visions of a new home theater system were dashed quite unceremoniously by two pairs of pocket 10s going down in flames, once to the class clown holding queens and the final coffin nail administered by the Mad Russian's set of 7s. I really have to adjust my approach to these semi-deep stack tournaments. I am not taking enough chances or putting my opponents to the test often enough on bluffs. Catching cards and playing solid, smart poker is a nice foundation to anyone's game but without adding a few levels to your play, you will never fully maximize a poker session's potential. It is here I will discuss two of those levels.
BLUFFING
Maybe this section should just be called "thinking outside the box" because I don't do it enough. In that big tournament saturday there was this one kid, probably about 27 years old who played alot of hands with the collar of his red fleece pulled over his face everytime he was in a hand. He appeared to be catching a lot of hands. But I'll never know because I never put the punk to the test with a reraise pre or post flop, never having a hand. But that ain't poker, that's overly patient wussy play that'll end up bouncing you out of a tournament with pocket 10s to an underset. Sometimes that one bluff, that one extra pot is the difference between getting the money and sitting on the couch wondering when the pizza is gonna get there. That one bluff is worth so much more than just that pot. It establishes your own confidence and instills an unwillingness in your opponents to play a pot with you. The sailing is so much smoother once you establish, in yourself and in others, that this dog came to play today. Well, this dog (thumbs pointed at me) was a cat that day and I had to wait for a cash game to scrape together the funds for that new amplifier, which leads us to point number 2....
VALUE BETTING
You can read your opponents, choose your cards wisely, and exercise the right mix of patience and aggression but there is one component that can make the difference between winning and losing poker. Value betting, squeezing every last available chip out of every pot. I'm no poker expert so I will not sit here posturing that I can reel off an amazingly cogent, logical exposition on the finer points of value betting. But I can tell you a story, 2 stories actually. This occurred after I busted out of the big tournament. I took about 20 minutes to sit on the couch, mindlessly stare at some college basketball game on the tv (I HATE basketball), and let the steam cool off of me before heading to the $1-$2 cash table.
I worked $190 slowly up to about $350 when I was dealt pocket Aces on the button. Pocket aces on the button is the main reason a poker player leaves the house, you cannot find a better situation. By this point a $5 straddle was on for the whole game, I raised it to $17, at least 3 callers give or take, I don't quite remember. Flop A-Q-6 offsuit. It's checked around to me and.....I bet $40? That's not a misprint. Ona ragged board, in position, holding a SET OF ACES, I actually grabbed 8 red chips and threw them in the pot. The only counter I have to "that's the stupidest bet I've ever heard of" is that we were playing the 7 -duece (win any hand with 7-2, no matter when or how, and everyone at the table has to pay you $5). I was trying to represent the 7-2 and look like I was bluffing down the pot. Let's examine the folly of this play:
1.Assuming that someone would put me on a 7-2 steal assumes that I am unreadable. I'm not and I know it.
2. Even if someone suspects a 7-2 situation, wouldn't it be better to check and hope someone bets the turn in an effort to take the pot from me after I show weakness on the flop?
3. Suspecting someone's bluff and pulling the trigger on the them are two VERY different things. If I was successful in pulling off some amazing acting job and convincing someone that I was bluffing, they still would have had to fire about a $150 re-bluff at the pot in their effort to push me off and that's extremely difficult to commit to even if they are "convinced" I'm bluffing. Most of us think that at least half of every pot won is by a bluffer, yet we don't go apeshit trying to stop it.
4. What can they call me with? I can only think of 4 hands that could stay in with me. Set of 6s, A-Q, K-J, and 10-J. I've obviously got the first two crushed and if someone tiptoes into a gutshot straight, that is the chance I've got to take.
I don't know if I left money out there or not, who knows maybe all three of them had 7-8 suited, but I HAVE TO check and let someone catch something or at least stab at it on the turn. Estimated opportunity lost: $40-$100.
The next missed opportunity came quite late in the game, probably around 2:30 am. By that time Jason had joined the table. In a group of some very respectable players, he is as good as anybody. He really plays a disciplined game. When I say disciplined I mean the multi layered type of discipline that elevates your game to the next level. I'm not referring to the discipline it requires to throw away K-J in middle position and avoid chasing expensive draws. I'm talking about the discipline it takes to fire at a pot with nothing, re-raise bluff out of position, or move in on a big draw knowing that while it could spell doom, it is statistically the best play the maximize your chips. Alot of players know you need to continuation bet with nothing, raise someone when you think they're out of line, and generally make someone pay the maximum when they appear weak. Jason has the DISCIPLINE, and the balls, to do it every time.
I got involved in a hand with Jason, and it played out like this: Not 5 minutes after I was discussing the merits of folding J-10 suited, out of position, to a healthy raise, I was dealt J-10 suited but this time in position and called Jason's $30 raise. I think we had one other caller. The flop came 9-Q-A. That's the flop I want in position. I'm opened ended and it's got an Ace, meaning if I hit my draw, I will likely get paid big time (if I play it right!!!). He bets $50. With about $100 in the pot, we don't have to go into any deep analysis to say the implied odds were more than there. I call, other guy folds. The turn is another 9. Not a good card. Jason checks. This is where I should have really given some thought to what he might be holding instead of just thanking the poker gods for a free draw to a straight. Of course there's no way in hell I'm going to bet BUT I've really got to know what to do IF I hit the straight on the river. It's here I squandered an opportunity to really throw some complexity into this pot.
Instead of insta-checking like I did, I should have run the progression of hands he might have before rapping my knuckle on the table. It would serve me well to appear as though I've got some kind of hand that requires some time to think but that the 9 slowed me down a little. If he's got a monster of course he's going to check the turn. It achieve two things: one, he looks a little weak, and two, it gives me a chance to catch something and pay him off. I need to think this through, what could he have to raise out of early position in a pretty loose cash game (remember it's 2:30 in the morning)? A-A? maybe. Q-Q? just as maybe. 9-9? even less maybe but possible. A-K or A-Q? Sure, who knows? BUT the point is that it's not here, right now, that I'm going to know what he holds. It doesn't matter what he holds, what matters is I prepare myself for the correct play depending what hits the river. Let's assign him a range of hands and corresponding course of action for each one on the river. Monster: He's got to bet the river, ESPECIALLY if a straight card hits. Big Ace: He'll check again. The 9 spooked him and my check back gave him no information. Weak pair. He'll certainly check again and that's when I must employ a little judgment and decide whether or not to bluff the river. None of that matters, a King hits the river and I've caught what I'm looking for.
I realize now, as opposed to then, that what Jason does when the river card hits is so crucial to extracting maximum value out of this pot. Put yourself in his shoes. If he's got a monster, he's going to love that river and bet hoping I will call, or better yet, play back at him with the straight. That's all I need to know. He WILL NOT check both turn and river with a winning hand. Let's think again, what would he open-raise with? Mathematically, A-K or A-Q is most likely. If he's got A-K, then my call on the flop may have frozen him, thinking that it's ME who's got A-Q. If that's the case though, he loves that King. But Jason is smart enough to also know that King hits an open ender. HE checks. Knowing what I know now, I HAVE TO BET. He is NOT going to take the chance of losing me on the river with a big hand. More importantly, if I would have thought it through, I would have logically put him on AK or AQ and made a value bet of $80 or so. He is not immortal, and would call with his two pair just like the rest of us. I showed the irrational fear of being set up by his boat full of guns on the river and checked, stupidly saying "well, I see no value in betting here." Even though he had "only" $250 in front of him, I didn't have the guts, no actually the brains, to extract about a third of that on the river. I hope I've made it abundantly clear that by thinking it through, I would have easily seen that he did not have a straight beat. I checked, he turned over A-K. I was admonished by Daryl for not value betting the river and now, Yes Mr. Norman I see the light.
Jason and I both made a mistake on that hand. No doubt he was kicking himself for letting me catch that King, he should have moved at least $1oo on the turn. And I'm kicking myself for not keeping the poker gods and their allotments of luck in line with the stars by betting for value a straight that I paid just a tad too much to draw to. And in some backwards way, I think Jason would have taken the beat a bit easier had I played it right and got some value out of it.
Estimated Opportunity Lost: $80 - $100.
Some nights your just not gonna catch that many hands, or you just might be up against a tough table that gives nothing away. And it's those nights that will really remind you that you've got to extract maximum value out of every hand to really be a winning player.
Think every hand through, take your time, and make the right move every time it's possible. Sure, some mistakes will be made along the way but like everything in life, that's the only way you get better.