VALUE CHECKING

The Scene: 1-2 Pot Limit Omaha.

Players: 4

Position: Cut off
On the button: Todd, a good solid player, especially in Omaha

I’m dealt Qh-Qd-7d-10s. I’m running good (for once!) and we were only 4 handed so I raised to $6. Todd called and both blinds folded. The flop was a juicy Qc-6s-2s. I threw out $10 and Todd called. There was now $35 in the pot. The turn was a 4c, a seemingly harmless card, no reason to overcharge here. I bet $20. He didn’t think long and made a smooth call. There is now $75 in the pot. At this point I’ve got to consider what he’s got. A big pair sticks in my mind but he called too easily so I add a flush draw to the reasons he’s putting chips in this pot. The river is a harmless 9 and this is where I think I will do something different the next time. I’ll tell you what I did shortly but first a discussion of philosophy.

The basic premise of poker is to force your opponents to make tough decisions. Although in No Limit Hold Em the tough decision is usually whether or not to commit their chips after you’ve bet at them or raised their bet. This decision almost always boils down to a simple “do I have a better hand than he does?” and chips are then moved accordingly.

Let’s say you’re you’re dealt J-J on the button. You make a raise and get one caller. The flop comes Kc-8h-9d. Not bad, one over and some draws. Checked to you. You bet about ¾ pot and get called. The turn is the 4h. You bet again, get called. At this point straight and flush draws are highly probable, maybe a king. The river is 5h. It’s checked to you. Unless you put your opponent on exactly 10s, betting here is usually not a good idea. As they say on the internet, it has "negative ev". You will only be called by a hand that beats you.

Well, to me I’m in the same exact situation in this Omaha hand but the positions are reversed. I will be only be RAISED by a hand that beats me. I’ve bet the whole way through and now it’s likely I have by far the best hand, Top Set, 2nd nuts in fact. If I bet, what can I expect to be called with? An underset is the only hand I can see paying me off but given the progression of this hand, I almost guarantee he does not have one. If he’d hit a set there would be a multitude of reasons for him to raise my bet on the flop .

The 5-3 is obviously the ONLY hand I fear. But he’d have to have some weird hand like K-K-3-5 for that to happen. My luck’s been bad lately, but hopefully not that bad. The case against 3-5 is overwhelming. Again, with the flush draws and ever present possibility of pairing the board on the river, he would have certainly raised the turn if he hit a set.

In this scenario, one that I feel is under-addressed in the realm of pot limit Omaha discussion, we are presented with the case for “Value Checking”. Betting into them makes their decision to fold way too easy. When your opponent misses their draws on the river, put them to a tough decision: They’ve missed their draws and now it’s time to decide “Should I bluff or not?” And the bigger the pot, the bigger the temptation they’ll have to try to steal it back. $75 is not a ton of money but he’s put $36 in there and he probably wants it back. He’s a gamer and to simply wave the white flag would not constitute a very high level of gamesmanship.

What did I do? I bet $35 but next time I won’t. He almost certainly has a hand he knows cannot win in a showdown. The temptation to bluff will be overwhelming. No straight, no set, big pot…Why not check and force him to try to steal it? Next time folks…..next time.

By the way, yeah – he put on a little “maybe I’ll raise” show and folded.