This Week's NFL Picks

Previously I have only listed the results of my NFL bets. Whenever possible I will now preview them before the games and then on Monday will see how much of a genius, or idiot, I am.

• Green Bay (+7) at Dallas 0/u 52

I'm betting on Green Bay because I want them to win AND I think Farv-ra and company can keep it within 7. I might even bet the Cheese on the money line (currently +275). I'll update if I o. I think the under will hit but I love scoring and am sick of betting on totals. Not touching it.

Update: Lied. Picked GB & the over. Got half right. Wagered: $20, Lose $20

UPDATE #2: Props to my Peeps. I recovered all that $20 and then some with 3 player prop bets that ALL worked:

1. Brett Farvra - Under 320.5 yards passing. He got hurt, call it a gimme. Win $10

2. Ryan Grant - Over 75.5 yards rushing. Basically got it in one 1st quarter TD. Win $6

3. Terrell Owens - Over 6.5 receptions. He got 7, Perfect. Win $10

• Buffalo (+5.5) at Washington o/u 37

Ugh. Who knows what the 'Skins will look like after Taylor's death. I'm not touching this one. I'll update if I do.

• Detroit Lions (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings o/u 45

Detroit on a 3 game slide and Minnesota clobbering the Giants has made the odds makers very kind to the Vikes. Detroit is one of those Jekyll & Hyde teams that'll drive ya nuts on a Sunday afternoon. I don't care who wins but Adrian Peterson should be in the line up and Kitna will fare much better than Happy Feet Jr. The scoreboard should light up. Taking the over but I reserve the right to rescind if Peterson doesn't play.

Update: I wussed out and didn't bet.

• Jacksonville (+7) at Indianapolis o/u 45

Another intraconference touchdown road dog. All eyes will be on this one. One thing ours eys won't be on is the Jag's mascot, perhaps the funniest looking in pro sports. Has anyone ever taken a close look at this guy? He look's like Big Bird's acid tripping hippy cousin, who only leaves the East Village to visit Sesame Street on Beatnik Poetry Night. Take a look the next time they're on, you'll see. Anyhow, the Jacksonville juggernaut rolls into town to face the formerly reeling but now healing Colts. I like the Jags to cover and the under, but will probably just bet the spread. I'll update if anything changes.

Update: I bet Jags moneyline (wanted odds, what can I say). Wagered $10, Lost $10

• San Diego (-6) at Kansas City

True story: Friday afternoon I was sitting here typing away and listening to Howard Stern on Sirius. Some guy calls in just going off on how much of a lock this bet was, you should bet 8 times your normal amount, etc, etc. You know what? I agreed with him, only doubled up though. San Diego 24 - Kansas City 10. Wagered $22, Won $20

• Houston Texans (-4) at Tennessee Titans o/u 42

The new Oilers fly to music city to play the old Oilers. Just before game time it was announced that Albert Haynesworth was playing. Haynesworth IS the Tennesse defense. I put it on the under. It didn't work. Vince Young forgot he sucks and actually played well as the Titans scored one touchdown too many. Titans 28 - Texans 20. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Cleveland (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Cleveland? I bet on Cleveland? How the hell does any self-respecting Die Hard Pittsburgh Steelers fanatic ever bet on Cleveland? Once. That's how, NEVER AGAIN. Wagered $16, LOST (JUST AS I DAMNED WELL DESERVED) $16

• Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans o/u 41

All I know about the New Orleans Saints is that they score alot of points and they give up alot of points. I don't think they have a whole lot of maturity or enough talent to go around though so I have no clue who's gonna win but I'm pretty sure we'll see more than 41 points.

Update: I hit the over as expected but right before the game my girlfriend wanted some action....so I bet her the moneyline on New Orleans. New Orleans loses AGAIN. 23-27. Result: Win one, lose one. Wagered: $20, Pushed.

• Cinncinati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers 0/u 38

Betting on the Steelers is heart wrenching for me so I don't do it very much, plus I really thought after the last couple games that the Bungles had a very real chance to cover. But betting on the Flush 'em down Browns was bad enough, so following through on that thought would earn me an expressway to hell, where you are forced to watch endless loops of a Miami Dolphins - San Francisco 49ers game. So I do what I always do: Bet the over and hope for a pile of points because I have, gasp, Carson Palmer in a fantasy league anyway. The Bengals are who we thought they were! though and they can't score. Steel Curtain 24 - Bungles 10. Wagered: $16.50, Lost $16.50

Week's Results: -$27.50. Uh oh, guess that next bottle of Ketel One is coming out of my own pocket but there is big time help on the way, as you can see here.

Sean Taylor Passed Away

UPDATE: http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8049be12&template=without-video&confirm=true

Man, what an incredible bummer. Very suspicious circumstances too. This certainly does not seem like a random robbery, someone knew what they were doing.

Condolences and best wishes for the family and the team, and hopefully whoever did this will be brought to justice.

Nobody Likes A Tease

I love the multi billion dollar cottage industry dedicated to betting hard earned money on something so ridiculous as the outcome of a football game, usually in relation to achieving a minimum score differential among the two teams. What I love even more is the creativity with which these shylocks and grease men will allow you to put your weekly wages at risk. That is until now. So far this season I have mainly stuck to picking a winner against the spread, over/unders, and the occasional parlay for the big payoff. Well, this week for some odd reason I went teaser crazy. Perhaps I felt the need to liquidate Saturday night's profit of $100 in $.10/$.25 pot limit omaha (seriously).

Here's a recap:

• Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

Green Bay is just on a roll. Wagered: $11, Won $10

• New York Jets (+15) at Dallas

Don't Ask. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Over 47

Cincinnati scores alot. It's that simple. Tennessee superstar lineman and former face-kicker Albert Haynesworth was still out. While Cincy's offense held up their end of the bargain, the defense chose this week to forget that they blow. Apparently the medicine for a shitty defense is to play against Vince Young. Young is entertaining as he prances around the field, ball held high and out for any closing defender to knock into the air with a mere swat of the fingertips, running for the occassional 6 yard gain whilst treating his receivers to a game of "you run this way, you run that way" down the street style of football. 12 points Vince, all we needed out of you was 12 points. We got 6. Bungles 35 - Ms. Pac Man 6. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11

• Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs Over 38

I couldn't pick a winner here, I think it was Redskins (-3). But I did think it would be about a 23-20 type game. And it would have been. Except Jason Campbell developed a severe phobia of the red zone in the 4th quarter, tossing two picks inside the 20 on their last two drives. Bucs 19 - 'Skins 13. Missed it by 6. 6, Mr. Campbell, is the point value of a touchdown that you will be awarded should you decide ever again to throw to one of your guys in the end zone. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11

• Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams Over 45.5

Bulger was back, Jackson's healthy and Seattle still gives up enough points, while scoring their fair share, to make this one look like a no-brainer. And at the end of the 1st quarter things were lookin' great at 16-7, for a total of 23. Then something odd happened. They both decided to play defense. What!!!!!? 3 more quarters for a total of 20 more points and I miss it by a field goal. Wagered: $11, Lost: $11. Ouch, let's see what's going on over at that Saints game....

• New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers

This has become the no-brainer du jour. Until further notice, bet against Carolina regardless of the spread. The oddsmakers still haven't adjusted the spread for just how far apart the Panthers have fallen. New Orleans would have been a bargain at (-10). Because of the eternally anemic Panthers offense, the over (somewhere around 38 or so) scared the hell out of me, and rightfully so. Steve Smith deserves better. Bagheads 31 - John Kasay 6. Wagered: $11, Won $10

Alright, here's where things get weird. When I look at a line and just don't get any noticeable gut feeling, I usually just leave the game alone. There are some games that are just too random to get a feel on. These games usually involve shitty, jekyll & hyde type teams. In the name of brevity, here's what happened:

• Buffalo Bills teased from (+9) to (+15) vs. Jacksonville AND The over (teased from 37 down to 31). Jacksonville clobbered 'em, 36-14 en route to obliterating the original over by 13.
• Oakland Raiders vs. KC teased from (+5.5) to (+11.5) vs. Kansas City AND Houston vs. Cleveland teased from (+3.5) to (+9.5). Houston Lost by 10 via a mop up TD with 3 minutes to go. It was never close.

Let's just say this: Involving Buffalo, Oakland, and Kansas City in any kind of betting other than "they'll get the snot kicked out them" is bad business. Don't mess with bad and inconsistent teams. Wagered: $22, Lost $22

• Denver at Chicago Over 41 Wagered: $11, Won $10

Everything went as planned on this one, the Chicago defense just isn't what they were last year. But I got greedy. Because of the debacle of losing almost every 1 o'clock bet, I snuck in a "make up" bet on Denver (+1) right before the game. After kicking to Devin Hester TWICE, ON PURPOSE and watching him run for two TDs, Denver seemed to have righted their ship and pulled into a 34-20 lead with 10 minutes to go. Then Mike Shanahan committed the cardinal sin: Prevent Defense. As many have said, the prevent defense only prevents you from winning. All you gotta do is pressure Rex Grossman and he will give you the ball by either throwing a pick or fumbling in the backfield. Denver made him look like Joe Montana en route to picking apart them apart for two scores in about 5 minutes. Then they lost in overtime. Let's recap: Kicking to Devin Hester + Prevent Defense, coupled with the Shanahanigans of calling a timeout 3 milliseconds before every field goal snap: Bring me the head of Mike Shanahan. Wagered: $11, Lost $11

• Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-23)

All season it's been until further notice, bet on the Patriots. This is further notice. Pats 31 - Eagles 28. Wagered $11, Lost $11

• Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 41

I made this bet on Thursday (after completely lucking into a parlay of Colts (-13)/over 41.5 at Atlanta. 31 -13 Indy. Wagered $15, Won $39). This was before the rain soaked/cow pasture debacle at Heinz field. At least I had the sense to make a second half Under 16.5 bet to push. Lost $1 on the juice

Overall Results for the week: -$20

Cash Game Results

Had a nice little cash game the other night. Thanksgiving was on the line and there was no weekly tournament so 12 people showed up for a night of no rake $1-$2 action. Splitting the gang into two 6 person tables was kind of a bummer but there was plenty of action to be had, perhaps highlighted by Sundeep's not so triumphant return from Singapore. After lamenting his missed opportunity on some prematurely dumped Google put options I swear the poor guy re-loaded twice before the button even got to him. He's an action player, more focused on downing some beers and yuckin' it up with the guys than he is on poker results. Plus, 4 or 5 hundred is nothing to a guy who spends his time lording over the international financial markets.

Although the night had no real dramatic moments for me, I did have a pair of Kings run into Ludey's Aces. For those of you who have read I wanna be a Cowboy you'll notice this is the second time in 3 games I've been knocked off my high horse by Ludeman's Bullets. As John Wayne used to say, "This is getting re-goddamn-diculous". This one I couldn't do anything about. There were 1 or 2 limpers, Alex raised to $15. Alex is what you would call loose, and as I had no positive action for the two hours we'd been playing, I was happy taking the $25 in the pot or hoping he'd call with anything but Aces. I pushed in my last $102. If Alex hadn't raised the hand would have played out differently but since he had, I had no choice but to shove. Alex probably held two napkins but Ludey insta-called...."AGAIN!?" I said, as he flipped over and actually apologized for holding aces. "That's poker" I said as I ran upstairs for the last $240 I had in the house.

After that I was down over $200 but ended up exactly 100 semolians at the end of the night. Not bad, considering. One day Ludey, one day..........

Results from this week's NFL Betting

I swear NFL Sunday Ticket was invented as a conspiracy by all the online sportbooks. There's ten games on at the same time but a majority of them involve mediocre teams that no one gives a shit about. In order for you to fully enjoy the experience, and feel that you got your money's worth, you have to fabricate a way to enjoy watching all these games. What better way to inject some self inflicted interest than to bet on them all! Well, most of them. Here's a recap of yesterday's action:

• San Diego (+3) at Jacksonsville 0/u 40.5

Who the hell knows what you're going to get any given week with San Diego? And Jacksonville's pretty solid but can they stop LT and will Rivers actually have a good day.? Like I said, who the hell knows. But I do know this: The Bolts cannot stop the run, David Garrard is back and the Jags offense is clicking. But their defense isn't quite as stout as years past and with all their weapons, SD should put up a respectable number of points. Sounds like a good time to pick the over! Final: 24-17 Jags. Squeaked one out by half a point. Wagered $11.50, WIN $10

• New Orleans (+1.5) at Houston o/u 50

New Orleans. The model of inconsistency. Potent offense, pourous defense and facing the Texans who have Andre Johnson AND Matt Schaub returning to the line up. I don't care who wins but I do have Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, and Kevin Walter in various fantasy leagues and I would love to see a sandlot shootout. Again, what better reason than to pick the over! As the game was starting my roommate (a fantasy football maven of the highest order) remarked on how well Houston plays D at home. Nonsense! I said, and it looked okay as the game entered halftime 17-10. A whopping 6 more points were scored in the second half. Looks like that next 12 pack of Miller Lite is gonna have to come out of my own pocket. Wagered $11.50, Lost $11.50

• Green Bay (-10) at Carolina o/u 37.5

I live in Charlotte so I have first hand knowledge of this little fact: The Panthers suck (su-su-su-su, that's right Judge Smails, they suck!). Of their defensive stars, Dan Morgan can't walk out of his house without suffering a season ending injury and Julius Peppers doesn't sack anyone anymore. Somebody told me a viscious rumor that it's because he can't get HGH from some guy in Spartanburg anymore but I don't know anything about that. One more reason the shirt and tie crowd at Bank of America Stadium will be in their cars by halftime: Steve Smith has a leg injury and is doubtful. Packers by 10, no-brainer. I took a look at the game about half way through the 4th and for some reason Drew Carter decided to catch pass and run for 50 yards. The Panthers score two plays later and all the sudden a 28-3 game at half was 28-16. Coach John Fox of the Panthers inexplicably doesn't go for 2 with 4 minutes to go, thereby preserving my 1 point cushion over the spread. Thanks coach. Wagered $11.50, WIN $10

• Cleveland (-2) At Baltimore o/u 43.5

I don't care who wins this game, they're both in my beloved Steelers' division so I'm just happy somebody has to lose. All season, I've had a hard fast rule of picking the under in any Baltimore game until further notice. They play such an excruciatingly boring brand of football. Their anemic offense and aging, yet still solid defense almost always ensures a snooze fest of 2 yard runs, passes for no gains, false start penalties, punts, and the occasional field goal. Almost Always. Yesterday these two sloppy bastards decided to score. If Derek Anderson would have decided to have thrown only to the guys in the offensively ugly white, brown, and orange uniforms than everything would have been just fine. Instead he zips a pick sixer to Ray Lewis, and then Boller throws his own 100 yard nail in my coffin to some DB in an offensively ugly white, brown, and orange uniform. Should have known. The Browns can't stop ANYONE. Wagered $11.50, Lost $11.50

• St. Louis (-3) at San Francisco o/u 39.5

This might be the "Who cares game of the week" but it is also the "Can't miss, 100% surefire, back the truck up, lock of the week". After having to endure SF last monday night, it is obvious that those 6 kids I saw playing in my neighbors yard yesterday could beat them. Coupled with the fact the Bulger is healthy, Steven Jackson is back, and Tory Holt still possesses hands, I'm going double on this one. It wasn't pretty, but they covered by the minimum, 13-9. Wagered $22, WIN $20

• Washington (+11) at Dallas o/u 47

Jason Campbell has struggled at times this year but I believe he has the skills, and more importantly the poise to become a legitimate NFL QB. The running game is coming together and he's starting to hit wide receivers in the end zone. The Cowboys are the Cowboys, they're going to score, no doubt about it. But one simple fact remains: Roy Williams plays for them. And they are going to get scored on. Other than Jason David, Roy Williams has got to be the most consistently shitty Safety in the league. Slow, poor tackler, physically soft, this guy has been burned more times than Ricky William's 6 foot bong. I figured the skins would give them a game and keep it within 7 or so. Hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day! 'Boys 28, Skins 23. Wagered $11, WIN $10

• Chicago (+6) at Seattle o/u 37.5

Over/under at 37.5! Did I read that right? Yes Larry, you did. Apparently the odds makers haven't seen the Bears defense since mid season last year. Double up on this one too! Seabags 30, Bears 23. Wagered $22.00, WIN $20

So I have a pretty good day, going 2 for 4 in the early games and hitting all 3 (including two doubles) in the late games. I'm up $50 so I figure I'll throw a little parlay on the Pats/Bills game. Pats (-16) and the over (46.5), no-brainer right? Wrong. wrong. I call Bondtrader Joe, poker buddy and fellow lowstakes gambling junkie. We conclude that "the Bills always play them tough" and I pick, and it pains me to even type this, the Pats (-16) and the under? What the hell is wrong with me? The Patriots are not an NFL football team. They are a superhuman gathering of highly talented football players executing their given tasks with a precision, attitude, and a hunger previously not seen in the history of this league. And until further notice, they will destroy all in its path, cover the spread, and obliterate the over in every game. Except against the Steelers. I will simply have to refrain from wagering that particular game. Wagered $12, LOST $12

Final outcome: + $35

MNF: Tennessee (+1) At Denver o/u 38.5. Huh? Shit, I have no clue. I'll probably tease up Tennesse to +7 and pick under 44.5.

UPDATE: I took Tennessee (+1). They got slaughtered. Wagered $11, Lost $11

Final week's tally: + $24

Poker Rules NOT To Live By

I came across this a while ago and thought it hilarious. It seems like there's always somebody at the table mucking things up and completely disrupting the continuity of a good poker game. Keeping his cards in his lap, throwing his flop bet directly into the middle of the pot, staring into space for ten minutes before acting, telling the table every hand he folds.....whatever it may be, departures from etiquette and common sense are abundant at the table. I'm sure you've all played with at least one guy who has read this list, completely missed its sarcastic intent, and treats it as the poker gospel. Read on but please, do NOT practice its preachings.

PROTECT THY HAND

Protecting your hand means just what you would expect: Cup your hands concealing the fact that you even have cards. Wait until the action passes you and the dealer turns the next card before calling out, "Hey, what about me?

"WHOSE BUTTON?

Having the button confers upon you an enormous positional advantage. Thus you will want to get the button as often as possible. If the button is to your immediate right or left, but the player in that position doesn't seem to be paying attention, simply slide the button in front of yourself.

IS IT MY BLIND?

Never post a blind until the dealer asks you for the second time. If the dealer forgets to ask, you are not required to pay. Often they make a mistake. Ask how much it is.

TIME PULEEZE!

Players are often unsure when it is appropriate to ask for time. In general this is proper in any of the following conditions:You are first to act.You are last to act.It is your turn to act.You are looking at the menu.You are reading the Racing Form.

SPLASHING THE POT

Chips should always be splashed into the closest side pot.

TABLETALK

Always discuss all hands in play. If three deuces flop, loudly proclaim that no one can have quads because you folded the deuce. The other players will offer their sympathy and maybe even announce what they folded. This makes the game more interesting and is merely a courtesy to those no longer in the hand.

SHOW?! NO YOU SHOW! (This one especially irks me!)

The best hand will want to build suspense by waiting until everyone else has shown. However the worst hand will also want to do likewise to avoid the embarrassment that comes from letting other players see what crummy cards he played. This tends to create a deadlock where no player is willing to show a hand. If this happens, simply reach out and sweep up the chips for yourself exclaiming, "Hey if no one else wants it.". Alternatively invoke the speed rule: The first person to show gets to take a chip out of the pot. The last to show is forced to throw one additional chip in.

OVERCALLING YOUR HAND

is not only amusing, it is sometime vital in order to get a player with a better hand to muck his cards. You run the risk of being accused of "angling", so smooth things over by offering to give the pot to your opponent. Exception: If the pot is large, request the decision of the floorman - it cannot hurt.

CRITICIZING OTHER PLAYERS

lacks class. That is why the expression "Nice Catch, sir!" was invented. Use this expression on every hand you lose even if the sir in question is female. If a person criticizes you, demand to know why "If they are so good, why are they playing low limit?" If you play 72off for the hell of it and flop a full house and some wiseguy starts spouting off, "Malmuth say..." or "Lee Jones says..." immediately cut them off and say, "statistics-shamistics, those guys are snobs and there is more to poker than mathematics." This is not only a clever thing to say it is also correct. Remember even Einstein who was poor at math, went on to discover matter or something and become fabulously wealthy.

FLINGING CARDS

Once considered a sign of immaturity, this is now the hallmark of the seasoned professional. New players however are often confused when it is appropriate to fling cards at the dealer. This is really a matter of taste but the rule of thumb is to do this whenever you have been dealt two consecutive bad starting hands. If you have pocket Aces cracked, flinging of the cards is automatic. Aim for the face. Flicking lit matches at the dealer is dangerous and is not advised.If the flop gives you the nut monster hand but no one calls, it is OK to fling the cards over the dealers head onto the neighboring table.Flinging cards at another player is a high variance play. He may be armed. It is safer to just fling your cards across the table in an attempt to foul his hand. If he protests, remind him that it is his responsibility to put a chip on his cards.

DECISION PLEASE

Although the floorman's decision is final, this rule is frequently misunderstood. What this really means is that the decision of the final floorman is final. If the first floorman does not side with you, do not give up until you have called over every floorman on that shift.

COLOR CHANGES

Request a color change when you have amassed exactly 101 chips. Immediately break down the big chip on the following hand. Ask the dealer for one of each color chip. Chip runners should only be used when the dealer has begun to ignore your requests. As a side note, it is OK to order food and drinks from the chip runner if there are no food servers or cocktail waitresses nearby.

DECK CHANGES

Requesting a deck change cannot alter the laws of probability and only serves to slow the game down. Thus you should only ask for one if someone else is winning.

LOBBYING

You are permitted breaks from the table for restroom visit, eating, or just wandering about to stretch your legs. Typically 20 minutes is permitted, but there are ways to increase this, by "lobbying at the table." Request an out button while you eat dinner at the table. Once you have finished, you have an additional 20 minutes to walk off that meal. Return to the table, play one or two hands to reset the clock and then wander off to chat with one of the waitresses for an additional 20 minutes. When you return, post only one of your blinds. If the dealer reminds you that you missed both, ask incredulously, "how much!?" Request an out button again while you watch your own game from the rail.Or better yet go off and play Pai Gow. There is no rule that you can't play in more than one game at a time.

PASSING CHIPS

is generally prohibited except that spouses are encouraged to share chips when one is getting low on funds. There is also the custom of the lucky chip. Whenever you win a pot, it is customary to toss a lucky chip to each of your friends or to the chip leader. That person should immediately acknowledge your generosity by rolling a lucky chip back to you. Sometimes you can get everyone rolling chips to each other.

THE NAME GAME

Whenever any deuce flops, loudly exclaim, "doooces never loooses!" or "Acey Deucey Never Loosey." You just cannot say it often enough. It is just as clever the thousandth time you hear it. Many hands in Holdem have cute widely known names such as "Big Slick" or "Heinz57", "Broderick Crawford" and even the "Montana Banana." But there was a time before these hands had names - someone had to name them, why not you? It is perfectly acceptable to christen hitherto unnamed hands with whatever strikes your fancy. Example: "Hooks-n-crooks" for Jacks and Sevens. Use your imagination. Any two cards could be "The Big 'W'". Obscurity and pithiness is what you are striving for. Even Mike Caro suggests that feigning insanity can help your table image.

NON-SMOKING SEATS

Exist on either side of the dealers and are reserved for smokers who are just joining the game. It is OK to smoke while seated there, but if noticed you must hold the cigarette an extra foot further away from the table. Notice that if you smoke standing up, you are not violating the rule.

TOKING THE DEALER

Toking, or tipping the dealer is a personal decision. Since dealers often claim that they are not at fault when they ruin your hand on the river, by symmetry they are equally not responsible when you win. They cannot have it both ways. So why bother? Tipping should be considered charity that you might give a pathetic homeless person. If you do tip, ask for a receipt.Another way to appear generous and look like a tipper, is after winning a big pot, just ask the dealer if you toked him. Often he will not remember. There - you just saved some money. If he says no, ask him if he's sure. If he still insists, say you are pretty sure that he's wrong and that you already toked him, but that you'll be certain to get him next time.

TABLECOPS

Tablecops are sniveling irritating players usually heavily stuck and imagines that it is his or her responsibility to point out every minor infraction such as folding out of turn, or showing hands to other players still in the hand or using a 2-way radio to communicate with ones partner. If you should be unlucky enough to find one of these sanctimonious holy-rollers at your table, a simple reminder such as, "Just because you are losing doesn't mean we can't have fun here" should suffice to reset the mood. Ask the dealer if you can have the whiner's seat when he busts out.

If you follow this advice, you will quickly gain the respect and admiration of all the regulars and you just might increase your expectation by a bet or two. Bet? Who bet? Is it on Me?

Pressing with Presto

There's a weekly tournament I play. Usually about 30 people, mostly real cool guys and enought decent players to make it challenging and worth while. While I occassionally make the money (having won the whole shebang twice in the last 6 months) what's really juicy is that cash game that takes form immediately as the players bust out. Mostly 1-2 NL Hold 'em and some PL Omaha. Here's an interesting hand that came up a few weeks ago:


Sitting on the button in a 1-2 PLO game, I'm dealt 5c-5h-8d-kd. It's limped around with about 5 callers and I call, hoping for a 5. The flop: 4d-5d-6h. Ok, decent flop but this is omaha and in a 7 way hand, someone is bound to have hit a straight. But this is omaha, it's a game of gamble, pot odds, and big swings. So far may stack has swung in the wrong direction, I've got a set, a draw to an 8 high straight, and the second nut flush draw. If this pot gets any significant amount of chips in it, I say to myself, it's time to gamble. The straight is made, I'm pretty sure, and if someone has a set of 6s, and the Ace high diamond draw, then so be it. It's the chance I have to take, because here's what happens next: Ludey (see "I wanna be a cowboy") pushes all in for about $18, then Ed, a tricky player but somewhat of an Omaha novice (not that I'm any expert either) thinks for about 20 seconds and raises "pot", which puts him all in for a little over $100. I'm pretty sure I'm going all the way with this hand at this point. Next player folds and sitting next to me is a loose player who also calls the $104. Ok, a confluence of thoughts now enters my mind. Buff's extra hundred now puts $244 in the pot. I've got $135 left. On one hand, I'm getting 2.4 to 1 on my hand, on the other, Buff's call tells me it's VERY unlikely king high flush draw is any good.

In calculating my chances of making the best hand, I do my best to ignore the flush draw. I have 8 outs to pair the board (if someone has a set of 6s, so be it, time to go home), and if I hit the 7 I will have caught the 8 high straight, hoping Ed's hesitation meant 3-7 and not 7-8. Because I'm certain Ed has the straight already, I ditch one 7 as an out and hope he's holding the 7d so I can add the other 3 as "legitimate" outs. With 11 outs I figure I'm about a 3-2 dog to win this hand, I push in my last $135. Buff is the only one with any chips left and he calls the additional $31. There is now $41o in the pot. We turn over and I see exactly the news I expected. Ed's got 3-7 for a straight and Buff the Ad-2d, neither has any other draw. The turn is a meaningless Queen. I see my dead flush draw, drink the last of my Sierra Nevada, and prepare for the miserable drive home when.....out of the depths of my fading poker luck, with a beam of light the case 5, the nuts, the ultra presto, falls on the river!

After the hand, one of the folders told me he had a set of sixes, he was sitting on Ed's left and correctly figured Ed had flopped the straight and let the set go. I told him, with Buff's money added to the pot, my bad run, and my exceptionally poor play that night, I figured it was time to gamble and admonished him for folding top set when it was clear I would catch quads!!! We were all curious about who was exactly the favorite on the flop, and Ed e-mailed me the next day with the odds he had determined with one of the many poker calcuators found anywhere one the web. It turns out my "guestimation" was very close to reality. Ed was a very slight favorite, less than one percentage point, as we were both 39% plus change to win the pot.

Pot limit omaha can often turn dreams into disaster. What's important to know is just what are the chance of realizing those dreams or plunging into disaster. And where there's the edge, even the slightest edge, you've got to push when the odds deem necessary. And just hope for that 5 to hit the river.

I wanna be a cowboy

I was invited to a 1-2 cash game Saturday night by a guy I know casually from running into at a few local games. I poured myself a nice tall Ketel & Tonic and settled in for the 30 minute ride to the game. When I showed up there was a diverse smattering of players seated at the table. John, heretofore known as "Mr. Positive" was there, along with Ludey, some guy from LA, a motormouth, 1 fish, a cardrack, and a donkey. Alright, I figured I'd stay for 4 or 5 hours, make a couple hundred, and go home. Well, Mr. Positive, a great friend of mine who I play alot with kept lamenting his inability to win any pots with Ace/King. Just as I was about to admonish Mr. Positive on the value of betting no matter what the flop hit, I noticed the cardrack and the donkey had called down to the river on at least 8 of the last 10 hands. I refrained from giving my friend the bad advice of betting into the two biggest calling stations this side of the Microsoft Customer Service Help desk. Cardrack hit a set just about every deal and the donkey kept winning big pots with 2-3, usually suited. I'd normally say that calling in early position with 2-3 is bad business, but hey! they were usually suited!

It was becoming a slaughter. A steady diet of 5-2, interspersed with the occasional 6-6 in the small blind after the pot had been raised, re-raised, and called for $60, and I'm really thinking I could have been home watching re-runs of "Matlock". 5 hours and $150 later (lost in an interminable series of uncontested pots), I was begging for any of Positive's big slicks just to push in and hope for the best. 5-2 and Q-4 just wasn't cutting it. After rebuying another $100 my day had finally arrived. 2 off the button and an open pot, I look down at Kings, the cowboys, the Marlboro Men. I reached for my lasso and fired 12 into the pot. Ludey, mistaking my miserable run of cards for a guy who only plays the nuts, hadn't called a raise of mine all night, and commented as such numerous times.

Truth is, he's more of a squeezer than I am and must be dealth with accordingly. He often agonizes over every decision, lamenting his inability to catch Aces at least once every round. He (appropriately) takes his time with every decision, weighing the value of calling, folding, or raising. This time he looked at his cards and quickly smoothed called, no hesitation whatsoever, no grumbling about his shitty run of luck. The warning bells that should have been going off in my head were silenced by my overwhelming joy of riding the range, punchin' them dogies, and being the most wanted outlaw in the land.

Flop comes 3-4-7 offsuit. Perfect, right? I'm gonna check to him and then blast in for the rest of his chips on any bet he makes. Boom! Hand over, money's mine. You'd think..... I check, he calmly slides his remaining $50 across the felt. What's going on here buddy? I can't fold, right? He didn't play 5-6, that's not his style, and he certainly would have at least gave some thought to calling with 7s or lower, he always does. With blind alacrity, I take .4 seconds to deduce he must have Queens, for nobody could wake up with Aces after it took me 5 hours to catch a pair of Kings....."Nice hand, Lude" as say as he rakes in the $125 and replies "You can't fold there, I mean how could you?"

For most of us it's easy to agree with that statement but let's look at things a little further before we conclude that this is just "one of those hands you're gonna lose". This is the first raise of mine he's called all night. It doesn't matter that those raises were often made with 6-7s, 99, or A-J, he smoothed called this one, quickly, with no thought what so ever. Like so many of us often do, I neglected to give any thought to what that meant, because I was holding a big hand. He hadn't been running well either, was down to about $60, and he is the type to give thought to maximizing any pot he plays. What would he have that he would, quite uncharacteristically, smooth call with? I've seen him throw away many a medium pair in this situation without a second thought. Queens, Jacks, A-K? No, he would have pushed all in with any "vulnerable" hand like that. I little bit of thought, and I would have easily figured out that he was, in fact, hold exactly A-A. While my pair of Kings had momentarily bespectacled me with rose colored glasses of invincibility, hindsight almost immediately clarified that with 20/20 vision.

What do you think? Should I have checked-folded? Should have have fired $15 or so and then let logic run through my brain and figure out what I should have already known? or was this one of those hands you're just gonna lose?

Let me know what you think!