Pressing with Presto

There's a weekly tournament I play. Usually about 30 people, mostly real cool guys and enought decent players to make it challenging and worth while. While I occassionally make the money (having won the whole shebang twice in the last 6 months) what's really juicy is that cash game that takes form immediately as the players bust out. Mostly 1-2 NL Hold 'em and some PL Omaha. Here's an interesting hand that came up a few weeks ago:


Sitting on the button in a 1-2 PLO game, I'm dealt 5c-5h-8d-kd. It's limped around with about 5 callers and I call, hoping for a 5. The flop: 4d-5d-6h. Ok, decent flop but this is omaha and in a 7 way hand, someone is bound to have hit a straight. But this is omaha, it's a game of gamble, pot odds, and big swings. So far may stack has swung in the wrong direction, I've got a set, a draw to an 8 high straight, and the second nut flush draw. If this pot gets any significant amount of chips in it, I say to myself, it's time to gamble. The straight is made, I'm pretty sure, and if someone has a set of 6s, and the Ace high diamond draw, then so be it. It's the chance I have to take, because here's what happens next: Ludey (see "I wanna be a cowboy") pushes all in for about $18, then Ed, a tricky player but somewhat of an Omaha novice (not that I'm any expert either) thinks for about 20 seconds and raises "pot", which puts him all in for a little over $100. I'm pretty sure I'm going all the way with this hand at this point. Next player folds and sitting next to me is a loose player who also calls the $104. Ok, a confluence of thoughts now enters my mind. Buff's extra hundred now puts $244 in the pot. I've got $135 left. On one hand, I'm getting 2.4 to 1 on my hand, on the other, Buff's call tells me it's VERY unlikely king high flush draw is any good.

In calculating my chances of making the best hand, I do my best to ignore the flush draw. I have 8 outs to pair the board (if someone has a set of 6s, so be it, time to go home), and if I hit the 7 I will have caught the 8 high straight, hoping Ed's hesitation meant 3-7 and not 7-8. Because I'm certain Ed has the straight already, I ditch one 7 as an out and hope he's holding the 7d so I can add the other 3 as "legitimate" outs. With 11 outs I figure I'm about a 3-2 dog to win this hand, I push in my last $135. Buff is the only one with any chips left and he calls the additional $31. There is now $41o in the pot. We turn over and I see exactly the news I expected. Ed's got 3-7 for a straight and Buff the Ad-2d, neither has any other draw. The turn is a meaningless Queen. I see my dead flush draw, drink the last of my Sierra Nevada, and prepare for the miserable drive home when.....out of the depths of my fading poker luck, with a beam of light the case 5, the nuts, the ultra presto, falls on the river!

After the hand, one of the folders told me he had a set of sixes, he was sitting on Ed's left and correctly figured Ed had flopped the straight and let the set go. I told him, with Buff's money added to the pot, my bad run, and my exceptionally poor play that night, I figured it was time to gamble and admonished him for folding top set when it was clear I would catch quads!!! We were all curious about who was exactly the favorite on the flop, and Ed e-mailed me the next day with the odds he had determined with one of the many poker calcuators found anywhere one the web. It turns out my "guestimation" was very close to reality. Ed was a very slight favorite, less than one percentage point, as we were both 39% plus change to win the pot.

Pot limit omaha can often turn dreams into disaster. What's important to know is just what are the chance of realizing those dreams or plunging into disaster. And where there's the edge, even the slightest edge, you've got to push when the odds deem necessary. And just hope for that 5 to hit the river.